Men’s Jeans imports into US down 6.82% in 2007

Compared to 2006 , the imports of Men’s Jeans into US has fallen 6.82% from 293 million pieces to about 273 million pieces in 2007.
The fall was consistent through the various quarters of 2007(as I mentioned last year) . The table below shows the figures of imports from various countries
IMPORTS OF MEN’S JEANS INTO USA (IN 2007) FROM DIFFERENT COUNTRIES

Country

Country	Million Pcs	Percentage Share
Mexico	97.71	35.66
Bangladesh	24.04	8.77
Pakistan	15.02	5.48
Honduras	14.35	5.23
China	13.32	4.86
Egypt	12.79	4.66
Cambodia	11.88	4.33
Costa Rica	11.79	4.30
Lesotho	9.90	3.61
Hongkong	6.54	2.38
Nicaragua	6.31	2.30
Guatemala	5.47	1.99
India	1.84	0.67
Jordan	1.57	0.57

Total Imports of Mens Jeans in 2007:: 273.93 million pcs
Source:US Customs

Some points are worth noting from the table:
a)Mexico still retains its position as number 1 exporter despite falling share.
b)China is yet to make a significant mark in the US men’s jeans market.
c)Bangladesh has continued to make progress and has aquired a sizeable 9% share of the market.
However, its big neighbour India still has an insignificant share of 0.67% and it shows that India is
not competitive in this product.
d)Small countries like Lesotho have made great use of Sub-saharan treaties to increase exports to US
e)Egypt has gained a great share at the cost of Jordan due to benefits extended to it. Jordan has lost the share due to its rising costs.

Effect of rupee appreciation on exports of Mens,Boys jeans to USA in 2007

The appreciation of the Rupee against the USD has taken its toll on the exports of all textile and apparel products from India. There has been a general fall in exports of apparel items across the board..
Lets have a look at how the rupee appreciation has affected the exports of Mens and Boys jeans from India to USA.. I have also taken comparative figures from Bangladesh to see how it fares vis-a-vis India..

Exports of Mens/Boys jeans from India and Bangladesh to USA in 2006 and 2007

	2006(doz pcs)	2007(doz pcs)	Change(%)
India
Ist quarter	24000	22000	-8
2nd quarter	24000	33000	37
3rd quarter	55000	63000	14
4th quarter	33000
Bangladesh
1st quarter	205000	312000	52
2nd quarter	390000	454000	16
3rd quarter	599000	739000	23
4th quarter	570000

Source :US customs

From the figures given above , we can see that the exports of jeans from India registered a fall of 8% in the first quarter of 2007 compared to the first quarter of 2006. However, the second and the third quarter have seen a steady increase in exports of jeans to US inspite of the appreciation of rupee.
On the other hand, the exports from Bangladesh continue to register a robust increase in all the three quarters of 2007..Bangladesh,in any case, has a huge lead over India in exports of Jeans and it seems to be increasing the gap further.
What is interesting is that the exports from India have not registered a fall despite the huge appreciation of rupee. This signifies that the additional capacities of jeans manufacturing have been created in India and the increase in exports would have been very significant, had the rupee not appreciated so much.
However, the next 2 quarters would show whether the Indian companies can sustain the growth in exports despite rupee appreciation or not – though i believe that the exports may grow stably given the excess capacities available in the industry..

US imports of Mens/Boys jeans down 6.8% in 2007(Jan-Sept)

The imports of Mens/Boys Jeans into US seems to have slowed down since the second quarter of this year. The total imports under this category is down by 6.8% .. This fall is significant in view of the boom that Denim was going through..

US Import figures for M/B Jeans in 2007

Year	Ist Quarter	2nd Quarter	3rd quarter	Total	% change
2006	4.2	6.2	7.6	18.1
2007	4.1	5.7	7.0	16.8	-6.8%

All figures are in Million Dozens.

Source : US Customs

Interesting…

Report on US denim fabric imports Jan-Sept 2007 remain same as 2006

It is very interesting to see the figures of imports of DENIM FABRICS into the US.
As we all know, US has seen the boom in Premium Denim labels market in the 3 -4 years.
As a result the main manufacturing of Jeans in the US is for these labels only. For price
concious buyers, all the Jeans have to be imported as US is not competitive to do so.

The figures of Imports of Denim for the periods Jan-Sept 2006 and 2007 are EXACTLY SAME.. This shows that the slowdown expected in the production of Premium Denim labels has not yet come and the manufacturing of Jeans is almost at the same levels as last year..
However, what is interesting to note is the figures of exports of individual countries to the US in 2007. Lets have a look

US IMPORTS OF DENIM FABRICS FROM JAN -SEPT 2007

Country	Jan- Sept 2006	Jan-Sept 2007	% change
World	34.37 million sq mtrs	34.37	0
Italy	6.9	10.06	+45%
China	8.57	8.59	+0.2%
Taiwan	4.91	4.04	-17%
Turkey	2.29	3.34	+50%
Japan	4.0	2.95	-26%
Mexico	3.47	2.50	-27%
India	1.25	.14	-88%

Note : All figures are in Million Square metres .

Source : US Customs

As we see above :
a)The countries to lose their shares of exports pie are JAPAN, INDIA and MEXICO..
JAPAN has lost some share to Italy as Italy has started to catch up with
the Japanese denim and is able to offer similar quality at lower prices.
INDIA – has been a laggard and has now totally lost the race. In any case, India was nowhere in the reckoning for the Premium Denim(even with companies like Arvind present here).
MEXICO – has been losing share continously because of non- competitiveness.
b) Out of the main gainers are ITALY and TURKEY.
ITALY - as mentioned above , has tried to catch up with Japan and has succeeded to some
extent.
TURKEY – is the surprise gainer . Though they had been doing good denims, they seem to have come up with some good denims for the brands in US..

It does portend well that the PRemium Denim is not losing the sheen as yet.. However, it may not last very long as Premium Denim also becomes commodotised..

Which Premium Denim Brand provides the best fit ?

We all know about the importance of fit in the buying decision of a premium denim. It is estimated in various polls that fit contributed almost 85% to a buying decision related to Premium Denim.

I think then its in place to know which brand – out of so many out there – provides the maximum satisfaction related to fits. Though I know that this is a subjective question – since a brand providing a good fit for one may not be good for other – it would be good to know which brand takes the most votes. I have considered important brands like 7 for all Mankind, True Religion, Earl Jeans, Rock & Republic,Paige, Nudie, Miss Sixty, J Brand,Evisu, Diesel etc etc.. Sorry for boring.. NOw you can go ahead and poll – Click here to reach the poll and select the Brand with best fit

PS:Brands of both sexes have been taken in the poll

US Imports of Mens/Boys Jeans & Breeches 2000-2006

US is the most important market for the Jeans. US imports huge quantities of denimwear from around the world.
The following figures will reveal how big this market is really. I am giving herebelow the figures of only the Mens/Boys Jeans and Breeches into the US from the year 2000 to 2006.

Year	Qty (Million pieces)	Value (USD Billion)	Average Price(USD/pc)
2000	194.19	1.41	7.28
2001	196.86	1.46	7.42
2002	235.69	1.73	7.36
2003	249.31	1.87	7.50
2004	259.74	1.93	7.45
2005	295.02	2.16	7.33
2006	293.62	2.10	7.15

Source : US Customs

We can see that the market is really huge with almost 300 million jeans imported only for Mens/Boys in 2006 .
The average price figures are though a little odd. It was expected that the average prices of jeans imported into US would have fallen significantly after quota removal. However, the figures do not reveal such a story. The prices are more or less stagnant around USD 7 – though a fall of about 5% is visible from 2004 to 2006.

But we must not forget that the character of jeans imported into US has changed a little over a period of time. Previously the majority of jeans imported were made of Basic denims and in basic styles. However, slowly the composition of fabrics have changed and more value added – like rings, slubs ,multicounts etc – are being used. These have contributed in increasing the average prices of jeans sold to US. However, it still needs to be remembered that a huge quantity of jeans are still exported to US at prices of USD 4-6 on one hand and on the other ,jeans of USD 10-15and above are also imported in sizeable numbers. Thus bringing average prices to these levels

Exports of Denim from Japan to USA (2000-2007)

I thought it was in place to give some figures on the exports to USA also so that readers could compare how Japan is doing in these two markets regarding exports of denim fabrics.
The results are not very surprising because exports to both the markets show some similar trends.
The year 2004 & 2005 have been the best for exports to both EU and US. Though for exports to US , 2006 has also been the best
The prices have been more or less stable over a period of time . In EU also the prices /kg have been more or less stable and so is the case in US. However, US shows an increase in average prices in 2007
The decline in exports of denim fabrics is visible in 2006 in EU and in 2007 in USA
If we extrapolate the figures of 5 months of 2007 for USA, then approximately 5.5 million square mtrs will be exported to US in 2007 against 6.2 million sq mtrs in 2006.
Lets have a look :

Year	Quantity(Sq.Mtrs)	Value(1000 Yen)	Value(million USD)	Price(USD/Sq.Mtr)
2000	765045	379121	3.13	4.09
2001	600841	323281	2.67	4.44
2002	2047052	1013449	8.37	4.09
2003	3534981	1768710	14.61	4.13
2004	7987713	3943224	32.58	4.07
2005	6132694	3137537	25.93	4.22
2006	6219223	3441724	28.44	4.57
2007(Jan-May)	2230106	1272908	10.51	4.71

Source: The Customs Deptt of Japan

Note: The exchange rate of USD to Yen has been taken as the current rate of
121 Yen/USD

 

Imports of Japanese Denim into EU from 1999-2006

Lets have a look at the import figures of Japanese denim into EU over a period of 7 years from 1999 to 2006

YEAR	Import Value(Million Euros)	Quantity(100 kgs)	Value/Kg (Euros)
1999	9.96	9895	10.06
2000	5.19	4847	10.72
2001	2.80	2504	11.19
2002	3.56	4637	7.68
2003	5.66	6035	9.38
2004	14.37	15811	9.09
2005	14.49	14357	10.09
2006	8.98	9120	9.85

     TOTAL IMPORT  : About USD 65 million
over 7 years      

Source : Eurostat       

    

Now what are the trends that we notice?

Years 1999 to 2001 : the exports from Japan fell continously.
Years 2002 and 2003: the exports increased at a good rate.
Years 2004 : exports increased exponentially.
Year 2005 : maintained the sales of 2004
Year 2006 : again witnessed a fall in exports

The hype for the Japanese denim started to surface in 2003 -2004 when Premium denim labels were starting to become a craze in the US and it EU. Japanese denim became a byword for many of these labels. Hence we see a great surge in the exports from Japan.
However, in 2006, the downtrend has begun and it remains to be seen whether it continues in 2007 also. The figures of the growth of Premium denim labels market in the US and EU seems to growing at a slower pace in 2006 than in 2005 and hence it is affecting the market.

Also, an important fact is that the Japanese labels are themselves becoming stronger and consuming more denim locally. Brands like Evisu, have developed a large fan following in the US and EU and hence more of Jeans made from these denims is being exported to these countries.

Prices: The prices are given in Euros/kg and look to be more or less stable over a 7 year period except in 2002 when they were at their lowest. However, a better picture may emerge when we see the prices in Euros/mtr (we shall be providing that shortly).

US Jeanswear Industry facts

Here are some quick facts of the US denim industry :

2006 US Jeans sales : USD 15.8 billion
% of total apparel sales : 12.7% (thats a lot isn’t it?)
Premium denim as % of total Jeans sales : 4.3% in 2006
Growth of Premium denim sales in 2006 : 23% !
Average price of jeans purchased by 19-24 years old : USD 32.88
Average price of Jeans purchased by 25-34 years old : USD 28.29
Average pairs of jeans with the US women : 8.1 and they wear it 4.19 times a week .. WHEW..

Export of W/G Jeans from India to EU 2000 to 2006

I have previously given the figures of the exports of M/B Denim trousers from India into EU.
Now, the figures for Women/Girls Cotton Denim Trousers are given below.
These figures clearly show some trends and we can have a look at them

EXPORT OF W/G JEANS FROM INDIA TO EU 2000-2006

YEAR	Units Exported	Value in Euros	Price/Jeans (Euros)
2000	563592	4478589	7.9
2001	1351961	9467001	7
2002	1915561	14016407	7.3
2003	1215116	9451086	7.7
2004	802137	5211775	6.4
2005	3037462	15975346	5.2
2006	2894183	17257882	5.9

From the above we can see some trends clearly.
1. Pre 2005 year(quota period) - the prices were much better than post quota.
2.Post 2005 - the volumes have jumped up substantially - but only in 2005.
3.2006 has been a stagnant year in terms of growth in exports. Though the prices have improved in 2006 - which maybe partly due to usage of better quality of fabrics in the Trousers as the basic denims are not much in demand.

Lesson for Indian exporters : The opening of quota has made things more competitive and the exporters have to compete with countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam etc and the prices will not be so easy to achieve as that in the quota period.